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How often does Minnesota get a "false fall"?

DNR climatologist breaks down a “false fall”
DNR climatologist breaks down a “false fall” 02:48

The sweet taste of summer keeps people satisfied at Conny's Creamy Cone in St. Paul. 

"It helps you cool off," said loyal customer Brian Lulek, as he enjoyed his soft-serve treat. 

Cones and shakes are bringing relief as an end-of-season heatwave brings a boost in business. 

"Definitely brings the crowds out," said owner Jeff Audette. "Like last weekend, we had lots of people come down."

A welcomed sight after a surly start to the month. From Sept. 3 to 7, the temperatures ranged from 11 to 15 degrees below average, with highs barely creeping into the 60s followed by nights in the mid-40s. That had people thinking summer skipped town.

"Another way of looking at it is it might just be kind of the opening act of fall," said Kenneth Blumenfeld, a climatologist with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

What defines a "false fall"? There isn't a specific definition, Blumenfeld said, but loosely it can be described as fall-like weather during the last month of summer. The temperature then heats up to at least average for the time of year.  

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Conny's Creamy Cone ice cream shop in St. Paul. WCCO

This September, people were battling rain drops and brisk air for nearly a week, followed closely by a steamy stretch worthy of ice-cold dessert.

So, how common is "false fall"? 

"We usually have a period of cold weather that occurs one to three weeks either ahead of schedule or just ahead of the bulk of that cool weather arriving," Blumenfeld said. "It's not every year, but it does happen often."

Just don't confuse the current hot stretch as a "second summer." For that title, there needs to be a stretch of above-average temperatures coming after the first frost of the season. 

Only far northeastern Minnesota has woken up to frost so far.

What causes the temperature volatility in September? Blumenfeld said it's a mix of warm and cold air coming in from opposite directions.

"On one hand, it's very much the end of summer, which means it's still very summer-like in regions especially to our south," he said.

That warm air from the south keeps Minnesota steamy as frigid cold air from up north in Canada cools us down. The temperature clash creates weather whiplash, and storms, having people ready to embrace fall as summer tries to keep from melting away.

"Sometimes when [summer's] gone, it's gone," Lulek said. "And then you don't get to do this again for, what, six to eight months sometimes. So yeah, you gotta grab [ice cream] while you can."

Conny's Creamy Cone — located a few blocks east of Como Lake at the intersection of Maryland Avenue West and Dale Street North — closes for the season on Oct. 18, but Audette said they'll keep the ice cream churning an extra week if it stays warm next month.

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